WB: Vietnam's economy grows steadily, but risks are increasing

16/01/2019 11:48 GMT+7 19

301/5000 The World Bank report also pointed out that Vietnam's economic growth prospects still contain risks that are accumulating, in the direction of worsening. In the context of Vietnam's trade with a high degree of openness, limited fiscal and monetary policy is still limited, Vietnam is still vulnerable to external fluctuations.

In the semi-annual economic publication about Vietnam issued by the World Bank (World Bank) today (December 11), World Bank stated that Vietnam's economic growth has proved its stability. despite external obstacles, mainly due to strong domestic demand combining the dynamics of export-oriented manufacturing and processing industries.

According to the report, Vietnam's growth rate this year is forecast to remain at 6.8%, higher than the 6.3% forecast for emerging market economies in East Asia and Thai Binh. Ocean.

In the medium term, Vietnam's growth is expected to follow a global trend - gradually decreasing to 6.6% and 6.5% for 2019 and 2020. Inflation is still maintained at 4% due to Monetary policy will be tightened.

“Even though the global context has many challenges, Vietnam continues to achieve steady growth, along with moderate inflation and a relatively stable exchange rate. Policymakers should take advantage while growth momentum is still favorable to promote structural reforms to increase investment and private sector-based growth, along with improved performance. public investment, "said Ousmane Dione, Country Director of the World Bank in Vietnam.

The World Bank report also pointed out that the prospect still has potential risks of accumulating, in the direction of worsening. In the context of Vietnam's trade with a high degree of openness, limited fiscal and monetary policy is still limited, Vietnam is still vulnerable to external fluctuations. The escalating global trade tension may lead to a decline in demand for exports, while tightening global liquidity may reduce foreign investment and investment flows. In the country, the slowdown in SOE and banking sector reforms may affect the prospects for growth and increase public sector obligations.

"Global growth decelerated, trade tension is ongoing and financial risks are overshadowing the global outlook. As an open economy, Vietnam needs to maintain monetary policy with resilience, flexible exchange rates and low budget overspending to improve its ability to withstand possible shocks, ”said Sebastian. Eckardt, the chief economist of the World Bank in Vietnam, said.

In the context of the newly approved Vietnam-EU Comprehensive and Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (CPTPP) and the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA), the World Bank report said that despite tariffs is rapidly declining but the number of non-tariff measures is increasing.

"Vietnam's average preferential tax rate has decreased from 13.1% in 2003 to 6.3% in 2015. In contrast, the number of non-tariff measures has increased by more than 20 times in the same period. International experience shows that non-tariff measures, if designed and implemented poorly, could cause trade restrictions, distort prices, and weaken national competitiveness, "World Bank said. know.

According to the report, Vietnam's system of non-tariff measures is still complex, unambiguous and expensive, leading to high compliance costs. One study estimated that the equivalent value of tariffs of sanitary measures that Vietnam is applying to imports is currently at 16.6%, compared with an average of 8.3% at ASEAN countries.

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